Currently, according to polls, Makerfield is a two horse race which, come polling day, few can have failed to notice. That does encourage tactical voting so what is said to pollsters and what happens in the privacy of the polling booth can be quite different.
We saw this in the recent Westminster council election. Lib Dem and Greens were said to be doing well, Reform stood in all wards and were optimist based on doorstep responses, yet on the day only Labour and Conservative councillors were elected. Not a single independent, Green, Lib Dem or Reform.
It was obviously a two horse race and most voters so wanted Labour gone that they voted to ensure that happened. It did. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 22.
The problem with Makerfield will be over how may voters still want Labour v those who want to see the back of them. I hope Reform does not get sidetracked into attacking Restore. Don't big them up with attention/ Just ignore them and focus solely on discrediting shape shifting Burnham. He and Labour are the target. Full broadside please.
A very measured piece, Gawain, thank you for this.
Thank you also for pointing out that up to Makerfield, no Restore candidate has stood anywhere, nor (obviously) been elected anywhere.
Restore have consistently misrepresented the Great Yarmouth result - one has to wonder why anyone would need TWO political Parties.
The argument about ‘standing down’ and ‘splitting the vote’ are circular - like yourself, I believe every elector should vote for whomsoever he wishes.
And that applies to Makerfield.
Again, like yourself, I sincerely hope everyone will carefully consider the importance of this by-election; I believe it to be probably the single most important and consequential of my lifetime.
Even though I am a Restore member I think you made some good points . In my county links are been forged between Restore and the majority Reform council group. We must in the future work together where we can to form a blue alliance.
Lowe's true colours will become more and more evident. I can only hope we don't all have to live with the consequences of his actions. People are so desperate for a “saviour” they remind me of Milligan's cameo in the Life of Brian
You speak of saviours ,but there is a new religion in the land ,It's called "Holocaustianity",we have a new problem in Bath with this poor ex mayor being hounded over specious arguments about "Anti Semitism"by Mr Nathan Hartley.Perhaps someone from Restore might do something about it since Reform seems to be reluctant to with "Bigger Fish to Fry ".I don't know what you mean about Rupert Lowe's true colours.I haven't heard he's taken £5 m from some crypto Baron based in Thailand,or didn't declare almost £400k of income or like Jenrick tried to save a Jewish pornographer £50 m in taxes.In fact he doesn't even take his parliamentary salary.
That's because you are sat on your behind, spewing hatred against a tiny little group of people you clearly know little about. There are fewer than 20 million Jews world wide. If you are so weak as to believe they can control everything around you, you are clearly a person who likes easy black and white answers to your problems, like all simple minded people do. That's the Jewish issue dealt with.
On your idol, Rupert. I've personally worked VERY hard for Reform for three years now. He has kicked off in good time to try and ruin two rounds of elections. I do not believe his actions were so perfectly timed by chance. He, very underhandely, set up Restore as a think tank and loads of people joined unwittingly. He then turned it into a party and pretended he had 100k members. I'm the little kid who has spent hours building my sand castle and some (rich and entitled) bully has come along and kicked it TWICE!
So please, do not pollute my head either with your venomous antisemitism or your Rupert fan-boy nonsense. If he's not in cahoots with the Tories, at a minimum, he is doing a bloody good impression of someone who is!
Some of us are trying to save this country. And some just want to share cheap, off the peg opinions. I don't say much on here because I'm busy DOING. Smear Farage all you like. We are Legion.
So just what are you doing I'd like to know ?.You have the arrogance to suggest my Idol is Rupert Lowe (Strikes me that all these reform cretins like you who imagine dear old Nigel Garbage is your saviour need a reality check,doesn't seem to be doing much for Clacton).If I do have Idols They are Ian Smith of Rhodesia and Enoch Powell ,both of whom I had the privilege to know(And incidentally they would never have stuffed their pockets with money from some weirdo in Thailand who goes by an Indian name there.)
You suggest Rupert Lowe is in cahoots with the Tories,are you aware of people called Braverman ,Jenrick , Zahawi,Dorries, Berry et alia .Possibly not ,in fact obviously not.Other wise you wouldn't make such a ridiculous and obviously hypocritical remark .
As for "Rich and entitled bullys "knocking down your sandcastle" ,I think the results speak for themselves,if I might say so ,you picked up about 2 k votes ,coming in 5th place I believe in the last GE (Restore wasn't even around then so don't boo hoo and blame it on Rupert Lowe).
As for bullying that's been done by Nigel Garbage and his acolyte Muhammad Zia Yusuf.I know what it's like to be on the receiving end ,like Rupert Lowe I had my house raided on false evidence ,the big catch being a signed photograph of an international statesman an aunt of mine had met before the war .They had to return it and pay me substantial damages (Avon and Somerset police,Inspector Cohen).
I do not concern myself with international Jewry,only the effects it has here ,which are patently obvious.One of our ancient rights of trial by jury is under threat .The agents of this threat ,the Jews Leveson, Starmer,Hermer , Sackman (The minister for Courts and the Golders Green MP who ironically talks about "Traditions").You tell me they have no influence.
What a pity for Bath you don't live there and at the last election had to rent a place In Trowbridge !
On a purely practical note, Rupert is a man with about five years of political experience, much of that thanks to Nigel Farage.
Rupert has no clue how the civil service works, nor does he have any politicians with experience of the civil service to call on. Were it ever possible that he became leader of the country, he would be eaten alive by the blob.
You seem to associate Rupert's house being raided with "false evidence". The police found insufficient evidence to prosecute; that does not mean there was no evidence.
The police would have conducted a background check on Rupert when he was reported to the police. This is standard operating procedure, particularly where there is the alleged threat of violence, true or otherwise.
When a firearms certificate is revealed in that background check, the police are obligated to check every weapon against the firearms certificates held, which includes establishing the mandatory means of storing them.
Rupert's offer to take them all down to the police station was generous but naive. He claimed there were so many the police had to use a wheelbarrow to transport them. The police are obligated to check that every firearm is legal, stored in a legal manner, corresponds to the firearms certificate they are licensed under, and has not been modified without permission. They are also obligated to check there are no unlicensed firearms on the premises.
These conditions, and more, are detailled on the firearms certificates Rupert holds. The certificates are, by their nature, warrants to search premises.
You lay the blame for the nation's woes at the feet of Leveson, Starmer, Hermer and Sackman, completely ignoring that it was the Scotsmen Blair, Brown and Campbell who created the conditions for the Scottish Tories like Cameron and Gove to follow.
Your objection to Reform recruiting former Tories into their ranks entirely overlooks that Rupert Lowe was once a Tory Party member.
You might also note that, almost uniquely in the world, Israel is the only nation dealing with Islam in terms it understands, whilst the Scots' Labour and Conservative Parties stood idly by and invited Islam into our country to rape and murder our women and children. Did the Jews initiate that?
The Jews are not our common enemy; socialism is.
Now is not the time to divide the true right wing of our country; it's time for Reform and Restore to unite, even if only tactically, and sort out our differences after we have buried the Labour Party for good.
Why don't you look up your present Reform supremo ,a wet lettuce if ever there was one,who used to be in The Tories (Wells,) and didn't get their nomination to be their candidate at the GE (might be something to do with him changing his name twice)so joined Reform , surprisingly.
"The Conservatives have given Lowe one of their positions on a Commons select committee, a courtesy that parliamentary rules have denied to Reform. The contours of this are not difficult to read. Restore Britain are not fielding a candidate in the by-election in Aberdeen, where the Tories have a chance of winning, whereas they are in Makerfield.."
"Of the good in you I can speak, but not of evil, for what is evil but good, tortured by its own thirst, and forced to drink of stagnant waters?" (Kahlil Gibran) There is a constituency that is seeking refreshment that no longer believes that Reform can provide it (that DID believe Reform could provide it) - that is what Restore are channelling, and they don't care if Burnham gets in, because on the matters that they hold most precious there will be no difference one way or the other (and the matters that they hold precious are not amongst the ones that you list). As I said previously, the most salient consequence of this by-election will be to see how large that constituency is (5%? 10% more?)
In simple terms, the position of Islam in the civic life of England - I think Nigel lost the constituency entirely after his Winston Marshall interview (he said something like 'if we fight Islam we will lose') and it connects with a perception that he/Reform aren't interested in fighting the grooming gangs. There are lots of things knotted together underneath that (religion!) but that's how I would summarise it. (Get James Orr on the case!)
Some of that makes sense. Tow interviews where he wasn’t getting himself locked in a corner. To make a chamge one has to be in a position to make the change. But that sort of sophisticated approach clearly isn’t wasn’t the red meat that some would like to see,
"To make a change one has to be in a position to make the change" - that's normally the truth, and prudent, but I think we're now more in the realm of "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..." Things will get more and more extreme until there is a decisive resolution. Perhaps it's 'red meat'; perhaps it's 'yes I see what you see and feel the same way'. I do have sympathy for Nigel's predicament but for me - and for many I know - it was a deal-breaker.
I take issue with this Gawain, we all saw the Winston Marshall interview, who also has a very large following amongst the intelligent young, who loathe being soft soaped. Nigel was very unimpressive on this key issue, the most unimpressive I have ever seen him.
There was no 'red meat' demanded just some honest appraisal, all we got was surrender, with claimed nuance after the event, you're doing it again here. You should watch it again and properly dissect it. It's not going away.
The up and coming generations, as you know, are the most media, message and 'being sold to' literate in human history.
I don't think Nigel has done a long form interview since with one of the young up and coming youtubers.
I disagree with the doomsday warnings of a Burnham win. What you think he can achieve and what he can realistically achieve are separated by assumption and reality. Even if Burnham wins, there is barely any time for him to make any blisteringly significant changes that cannot be changed by a new government. There will be no constitutional lock if he were to change the electoral system to PR; that's just not true. The processes Burnham and the Labour Party would have to go through to change the electoral system would leave little time for much else between now and 2029. The public reaction, I suggest, would be extremely negative, and the arguments for PR, as contentious as they are, would elicit a political toxic mist that would poison his leadership and place enormous pressure on the party. It would most likely also require a referendum. Additionally, there is always the chance it may be blocked by the Lords, as it wasn't in their manifesto.
The relevance and implications of a Burnham win in Makerfield have been blown into a mountain when it's merely a mole hill, a nothing burger.
No matter what the Labour Party do or who they elect as leader will have zero effect on how they perform at the next GE. Burnham is essentially Starmer 2.0 with a little more personality. The same political outlook with the same ideas leading a party that is so fractionalised and unpredictable means he will be pissing in the wind from day one if elected. Essentially, a zombie government just waiting to be put out of its misery by the voting public at the GE 2029.
I do take your points, and that is certainly a likely scenario. and I am questioning the wisdom of Burnham launching an election campaign, even if there is a significant boost in Labour’s polling in the few short months after he assumes the thrown. But that relies on the Labouir Party and Burnham being able to look straight.
Burnham is an old school opportunist- he lacks the intellectual conviction of a socialist, the pro-EU beliefs of yesterday and the liberalism of his teens. Reminds me of the phrase “A corbynista, a Starmerite and a Blairite walk into a pub. The barkeep says “Watchya drinking Andy?’
NF only came to prominence as did his various parties due to Proportional representation.Rupert Lowe as Gawain has acknowledged has every right to bring his party to prominence by standing.Mysrlf should I live there I would be voting for the Reform Candidate who strikes me as a thoroughly decent candidate.A plumber ,a local Man recently elected as a councillor.I am not a reform voter or supporter .NF is basically a security services stooge,who took great delight in having destroyed the BNP .His party is the new Con party mark 2.Muslim light with the whole thing a private business and limited company carved up by this Sri lankan and himself.
However I was horrified by Rupert Lowe's choice of candidate.,"Devoted to Send" (mentally retarded ).This is bankrupting every council and something should be done about it .There used to be an expression "Life unworthy of life"however as Jacob Rees Mogg told me ,Mongols have the vote .
So simply on gut instinct I would vote for Mr Kenyon .The best thing NF can do for his campaign is to stay away ,along with the likes of Yusuf,Zahawi,Jenrick et alia.
What a thoroughly nasty remark, ' life unworthy of life'
One hopes you never need support, if god forbid you ever had an accident, or ended up in a wheelchair.
Do you think that Stephen hawking had no support? Or that he should be ' warehoused' in a care home, to save the state money? Less of a burden, one presumes.
It is the state bureaucratic system, that is costing the money, parents have been saying that for years. They never listen!
And no I'm not a lefty, was involved with policy for years, to get some semblance of sensible from the local authority.
You are right on one thing, ridiculous wastes, alot down to health and safety. Costs double! £26 hr for an agency carer#@!
I am not talking about people who have had accidents ,or contract diseases etc (As for Stephen Hawking ,I'm always told he was brilliant but so what ,I preferred the Black Hole by Disney).
I live in an area with a high proportion of mentally defectives due to Inbreeding.Mongols,autistic,”Learning” difficulties (the problem is they can't learn).I regularly see these mentally defectives with their African http://carers.It is bankrupting this country and all the councils everywhere .They are simply using up resources that could be put to better http://use.So yes life unworthy of life.A good Euthanasia plan would be excellent .With the advanced in medical science I don't see these people need to exist at all,since it is able to be detected prior to Birth .If the parents wish to keep them ,then so be it ,if not the state will get rid of them .Have a nice weekend.
I have a politician friend in The Netherlands who I meet up with regularly and she told me that their PR election process means that no party gets ground for a majority and that’s why we see not long after an election in a European country, the coalition formed (they don’t have a choice but form coalitions to form a government) collapses and another election is called. This means that the nations of Europe are not being governed and why I think the EU has so much control there. She said our FPTP election system is the envy of the countries in Europe. I agree with her. She also stated that her country as well as other European countries would love to leave the EU like Britain did but they can’t because they are locked into the Euro. In her words they are stuck.
This is a great article Gawain and mirrors my thoughts. If anyone is paying attention then they will realise Britain is in a perilous position currently and these by election votes are very important, especially leading into a General a election which I believe is not far off, and likely before the end of 2026. Splitting the votes is strategic and a way to continue Britains demise. The Tories are desperate to return to government and Tories and Labour want to keep their Uniparty going and feel a definite threat by ReformUK. Dougie smith runs the Tory party, he’s paid a salary but no one sees or ever hears of him. He chooses who leads that party and what happens to leaders who don’t work his agenda. He’s not a good person, in fact if you have read “Downfall” you would say he’s dangerous. He’s mentored Kemi to become leader for a long time and writes the speeches they read out. If he’s been meeting Rupert Lowe then restore is a strategy of the conservatives and he’s being primed for a position in that party. Let’s not be fooled here!
Farage regularly railed against the unfairness of FPTP for smaller parties not getting representation...the LDs *as well as* UKIP, Bxt Pty and Reform in the early days.
Didn't he complain a lot that Reform's 4m votes in 2024 left the party with just 4 MPs?
That hardly sounds like him being pro-FPTP and lukewarm on PR.
It was clearly unfair, but I never felt this heart was in it, as he also understood the representation argument. He didn’t stop others going on about it though that is true. It was always a live by the sword die by the sword sort of thing. That being said I don’t think he realised that would be weaponised against him.
I wonder if those who say they will vote Restore would vote for Reform, absent Restore? Maybe Restore won’t “split” the vote significantly.
As for Andy Burnham’s policies. This is Attlee Mk II - turning UK into a quasi-Communist State. Nationalising the economy is what destroyed it, and we are now in the final phase of that ruination. The Attlee Government used Government debt to fund nationalisation, unless Burnham is just going to expropriate businesses like a Communist dictator, he will have to borrow a lot of money. He dismisses the importance of the Bond markets, but I doubt, not just given the enormous current debt of £2.9 trillion, they will lend to fund his plans. Then where will he get the working capital for nationalised businesses? Taxation, burrowing, money printing.
1960s/70s. Inflation above 20%, wage settlements around 14%, mortgage rates 16%, Income tax bottom rate 35%, rising in 5% increments in narrow tax bands to top 83% plus 15% supertax for unearned income, corporation tax 46%.
Growth rates were much higher from 1945 to the 70s, when there was a higher degree of public control and high taxes on the rich, than there was thereafter.
The stakes are not high in this by election at all, it really doesn’t matter which elitist commie leads Labour, Andy Burnham is an absolute tool and if Labour lurches further left then they will fail faster and be more beatable not less. Farage is a weasel, his straight up lies about Tommy Robinson mean he is dead to me, he didn’t just repeat the old ones which is sort of forgivable but made up whole new ones of his own. The lies the leadership told about Lowe were gross as well (you fail to address them) so he starts with my sympathy. Letting the scumbags from the Tory’s into leadership positions in reform is another massive turn off and how does it not make reform another Uniparty? It certainly is at the top. I respect the new councillors and decent normal Brits that have joined up to reform but they are being led by proven liars like all the rest. All the Unipartys have promised to get control of migration and that in itself is completely meaningless, we want it stopped and reversed. There is still no one I would trust to vote for but Lowe is the only one who has named two of the very real enemies we face, Fabian communism and Islam, not Islamism that’s a political fiction. At the very least it’s great to have Restore there forcing weasel Farage and his donkeys in the right direction.
Of course Restore is not fielding a candidate in Aberdeen. Gawain should know how long it took Reform to establish a presence in Scotland. Restore has no presence, no organisation and no ability to campaign in Scotland. Lowe has said he plans to put up candidates in the Scottish local elections next April.
It wasn't simply unwise and unnecessary to report Lowe to the police. It was incredibly stupid and Farage is now reaping the whirlwind.
FWIW, I doubt Restore, or the Tories, LibDems and Greens, will get more than a handful of votes anyway.
People are always accusing me of having Rupert Lowe as an “Idol”where they get this notion from I don't know.There is also an expression “Idols with clay feet”.Lowe’s son has married a Muslim woman,the celebration having Halal meat.His campaign manager in Makerfield is a certain Scott Benton,whose shady past would be interesting to Reform I would imagine.People can do their own research.I am glad I stated I would be voting for Mr Kenyon if I lived there ,I'm pretty shocked by this actually.Thank God my idols are gone and they'll always live in my heart ,to live and have to witness the decline of this once great nation is the worst thing anyone should have to endure .As the Dowager Lady Birdwood said in a Telegraph interview “The Jews and Muslims will be fighting for possession of land”.How right she was,in more ways than one .RIP dear soul.
Currently, according to polls, Makerfield is a two horse race which, come polling day, few can have failed to notice. That does encourage tactical voting so what is said to pollsters and what happens in the privacy of the polling booth can be quite different.
We saw this in the recent Westminster council election. Lib Dem and Greens were said to be doing well, Reform stood in all wards and were optimist based on doorstep responses, yet on the day only Labour and Conservative councillors were elected. Not a single independent, Green, Lib Dem or Reform.
It was obviously a two horse race and most voters so wanted Labour gone that they voted to ensure that happened. It did. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 22.
The problem with Makerfield will be over how may voters still want Labour v those who want to see the back of them. I hope Reform does not get sidetracked into attacking Restore. Don't big them up with attention/ Just ignore them and focus solely on discrediting shape shifting Burnham. He and Labour are the target. Full broadside please.
A very measured piece, Gawain, thank you for this.
Thank you also for pointing out that up to Makerfield, no Restore candidate has stood anywhere, nor (obviously) been elected anywhere.
Restore have consistently misrepresented the Great Yarmouth result - one has to wonder why anyone would need TWO political Parties.
The argument about ‘standing down’ and ‘splitting the vote’ are circular - like yourself, I believe every elector should vote for whomsoever he wishes.
And that applies to Makerfield.
Again, like yourself, I sincerely hope everyone will carefully consider the importance of this by-election; I believe it to be probably the single most important and consequential of my lifetime.
Even though I am a Restore member I think you made some good points . In my county links are been forged between Restore and the majority Reform council group. We must in the future work together where we can to form a blue alliance.
Lowe's true colours will become more and more evident. I can only hope we don't all have to live with the consequences of his actions. People are so desperate for a “saviour” they remind me of Milligan's cameo in the Life of Brian
You speak of saviours ,but there is a new religion in the land ,It's called "Holocaustianity",we have a new problem in Bath with this poor ex mayor being hounded over specious arguments about "Anti Semitism"by Mr Nathan Hartley.Perhaps someone from Restore might do something about it since Reform seems to be reluctant to with "Bigger Fish to Fry ".I don't know what you mean about Rupert Lowe's true colours.I haven't heard he's taken £5 m from some crypto Baron based in Thailand,or didn't declare almost £400k of income or like Jenrick tried to save a Jewish pornographer £50 m in taxes.In fact he doesn't even take his parliamentary salary.
That's because you are sat on your behind, spewing hatred against a tiny little group of people you clearly know little about. There are fewer than 20 million Jews world wide. If you are so weak as to believe they can control everything around you, you are clearly a person who likes easy black and white answers to your problems, like all simple minded people do. That's the Jewish issue dealt with.
On your idol, Rupert. I've personally worked VERY hard for Reform for three years now. He has kicked off in good time to try and ruin two rounds of elections. I do not believe his actions were so perfectly timed by chance. He, very underhandely, set up Restore as a think tank and loads of people joined unwittingly. He then turned it into a party and pretended he had 100k members. I'm the little kid who has spent hours building my sand castle and some (rich and entitled) bully has come along and kicked it TWICE!
So please, do not pollute my head either with your venomous antisemitism or your Rupert fan-boy nonsense. If he's not in cahoots with the Tories, at a minimum, he is doing a bloody good impression of someone who is!
Some of us are trying to save this country. And some just want to share cheap, off the peg opinions. I don't say much on here because I'm busy DOING. Smear Farage all you like. We are Legion.
So just what are you doing I'd like to know ?.You have the arrogance to suggest my Idol is Rupert Lowe (Strikes me that all these reform cretins like you who imagine dear old Nigel Garbage is your saviour need a reality check,doesn't seem to be doing much for Clacton).If I do have Idols They are Ian Smith of Rhodesia and Enoch Powell ,both of whom I had the privilege to know(And incidentally they would never have stuffed their pockets with money from some weirdo in Thailand who goes by an Indian name there.)
You suggest Rupert Lowe is in cahoots with the Tories,are you aware of people called Braverman ,Jenrick , Zahawi,Dorries, Berry et alia .Possibly not ,in fact obviously not.Other wise you wouldn't make such a ridiculous and obviously hypocritical remark .
As for "Rich and entitled bullys "knocking down your sandcastle" ,I think the results speak for themselves,if I might say so ,you picked up about 2 k votes ,coming in 5th place I believe in the last GE (Restore wasn't even around then so don't boo hoo and blame it on Rupert Lowe).
As for bullying that's been done by Nigel Garbage and his acolyte Muhammad Zia Yusuf.I know what it's like to be on the receiving end ,like Rupert Lowe I had my house raided on false evidence ,the big catch being a signed photograph of an international statesman an aunt of mine had met before the war .They had to return it and pay me substantial damages (Avon and Somerset police,Inspector Cohen).
I do not concern myself with international Jewry,only the effects it has here ,which are patently obvious.One of our ancient rights of trial by jury is under threat .The agents of this threat ,the Jews Leveson, Starmer,Hermer , Sackman (The minister for Courts and the Golders Green MP who ironically talks about "Traditions").You tell me they have no influence.
What a pity for Bath you don't live there and at the last election had to rent a place In Trowbridge !
On a purely practical note, Rupert is a man with about five years of political experience, much of that thanks to Nigel Farage.
Rupert has no clue how the civil service works, nor does he have any politicians with experience of the civil service to call on. Were it ever possible that he became leader of the country, he would be eaten alive by the blob.
Where is Rupert's plan to deal with the civil service? You can find Reform's plan here: https://preparingforgovernment.com
You seem to associate Rupert's house being raided with "false evidence". The police found insufficient evidence to prosecute; that does not mean there was no evidence.
The police would have conducted a background check on Rupert when he was reported to the police. This is standard operating procedure, particularly where there is the alleged threat of violence, true or otherwise.
When a firearms certificate is revealed in that background check, the police are obligated to check every weapon against the firearms certificates held, which includes establishing the mandatory means of storing them.
Rupert's offer to take them all down to the police station was generous but naive. He claimed there were so many the police had to use a wheelbarrow to transport them. The police are obligated to check that every firearm is legal, stored in a legal manner, corresponds to the firearms certificate they are licensed under, and has not been modified without permission. They are also obligated to check there are no unlicensed firearms on the premises.
These conditions, and more, are detailled on the firearms certificates Rupert holds. The certificates are, by their nature, warrants to search premises.
You lay the blame for the nation's woes at the feet of Leveson, Starmer, Hermer and Sackman, completely ignoring that it was the Scotsmen Blair, Brown and Campbell who created the conditions for the Scottish Tories like Cameron and Gove to follow.
Your objection to Reform recruiting former Tories into their ranks entirely overlooks that Rupert Lowe was once a Tory Party member.
You might also note that, almost uniquely in the world, Israel is the only nation dealing with Islam in terms it understands, whilst the Scots' Labour and Conservative Parties stood idly by and invited Islam into our country to rape and murder our women and children. Did the Jews initiate that?
The Jews are not our common enemy; socialism is.
Now is not the time to divide the true right wing of our country; it's time for Reform and Restore to unite, even if only tactically, and sort out our differences after we have buried the Labour Party for good.
Well you've stated your case succinctly and eloquently as ever .Thankyou for your trouble.Much of which I must say is fair comment.Kind Regards .
Thank you for being gracious enough to respond positively.
You're very knowledgeable about police matters David ,have you been in the dock as well like myself ?
I have attended Glasgow Sheriff and High Courts more times than I can remember.
Why don't you look up your present Reform supremo ,a wet lettuce if ever there was one,who used to be in The Tories (Wells,) and didn't get their nomination to be their candidate at the GE (might be something to do with him changing his name twice)so joined Reform , surprisingly.
Thank you Gawain, for another insightful piece:
"The Conservatives have given Lowe one of their positions on a Commons select committee, a courtesy that parliamentary rules have denied to Reform. The contours of this are not difficult to read. Restore Britain are not fielding a candidate in the by-election in Aberdeen, where the Tories have a chance of winning, whereas they are in Makerfield.."
"Of the good in you I can speak, but not of evil, for what is evil but good, tortured by its own thirst, and forced to drink of stagnant waters?" (Kahlil Gibran) There is a constituency that is seeking refreshment that no longer believes that Reform can provide it (that DID believe Reform could provide it) - that is what Restore are channelling, and they don't care if Burnham gets in, because on the matters that they hold most precious there will be no difference one way or the other (and the matters that they hold precious are not amongst the ones that you list). As I said previously, the most salient consequence of this by-election will be to see how large that constituency is (5%? 10% more?)
I think you are correct, and I would put at the lower end of your range. I would be interested in what you think those things are.
In simple terms, the position of Islam in the civic life of England - I think Nigel lost the constituency entirely after his Winston Marshall interview (he said something like 'if we fight Islam we will lose') and it connects with a perception that he/Reform aren't interested in fighting the grooming gangs. There are lots of things knotted together underneath that (religion!) but that's how I would summarise it. (Get James Orr on the case!)
Some of that makes sense. Tow interviews where he wasn’t getting himself locked in a corner. To make a chamge one has to be in a position to make the change. But that sort of sophisticated approach clearly isn’t wasn’t the red meat that some would like to see,
"To make a change one has to be in a position to make the change" - that's normally the truth, and prudent, but I think we're now more in the realm of "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..." Things will get more and more extreme until there is a decisive resolution. Perhaps it's 'red meat'; perhaps it's 'yes I see what you see and feel the same way'. I do have sympathy for Nigel's predicament but for me - and for many I know - it was a deal-breaker.
I take issue with this Gawain, we all saw the Winston Marshall interview, who also has a very large following amongst the intelligent young, who loathe being soft soaped. Nigel was very unimpressive on this key issue, the most unimpressive I have ever seen him.
There was no 'red meat' demanded just some honest appraisal, all we got was surrender, with claimed nuance after the event, you're doing it again here. You should watch it again and properly dissect it. It's not going away.
The up and coming generations, as you know, are the most media, message and 'being sold to' literate in human history.
I don't think Nigel has done a long form interview since with one of the young up and coming youtubers.
I would agree that with hindsight both you and Sam make a good point.
Personally I think he was burnt by the response he got after his Trevor Phillips interview during the GE.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/nigel-farage-under-fire-said-muslims-not-share-british-values
That's really interesting, I wasn't aware of that
I disagree with the doomsday warnings of a Burnham win. What you think he can achieve and what he can realistically achieve are separated by assumption and reality. Even if Burnham wins, there is barely any time for him to make any blisteringly significant changes that cannot be changed by a new government. There will be no constitutional lock if he were to change the electoral system to PR; that's just not true. The processes Burnham and the Labour Party would have to go through to change the electoral system would leave little time for much else between now and 2029. The public reaction, I suggest, would be extremely negative, and the arguments for PR, as contentious as they are, would elicit a political toxic mist that would poison his leadership and place enormous pressure on the party. It would most likely also require a referendum. Additionally, there is always the chance it may be blocked by the Lords, as it wasn't in their manifesto.
The relevance and implications of a Burnham win in Makerfield have been blown into a mountain when it's merely a mole hill, a nothing burger.
No matter what the Labour Party do or who they elect as leader will have zero effect on how they perform at the next GE. Burnham is essentially Starmer 2.0 with a little more personality. The same political outlook with the same ideas leading a party that is so fractionalised and unpredictable means he will be pissing in the wind from day one if elected. Essentially, a zombie government just waiting to be put out of its misery by the voting public at the GE 2029.
I do take your points, and that is certainly a likely scenario. and I am questioning the wisdom of Burnham launching an election campaign, even if there is a significant boost in Labour’s polling in the few short months after he assumes the thrown. But that relies on the Labouir Party and Burnham being able to look straight.
Well said Charles
Burnham is an old school opportunist- he lacks the intellectual conviction of a socialist, the pro-EU beliefs of yesterday and the liberalism of his teens. Reminds me of the phrase “A corbynista, a Starmerite and a Blairite walk into a pub. The barkeep says “Watchya drinking Andy?’
Fair, but right now the opportunity on the left is on the left. Particularly with the rise of the Red/Green agenda of Zack
If Burnham squeeks in he could lose his seat an an early GE. How amusing that would be.
I have been contemplating that delicious irony all day. And will write about it in the coming days
NF only came to prominence as did his various parties due to Proportional representation.Rupert Lowe as Gawain has acknowledged has every right to bring his party to prominence by standing.Mysrlf should I live there I would be voting for the Reform Candidate who strikes me as a thoroughly decent candidate.A plumber ,a local Man recently elected as a councillor.I am not a reform voter or supporter .NF is basically a security services stooge,who took great delight in having destroyed the BNP .His party is the new Con party mark 2.Muslim light with the whole thing a private business and limited company carved up by this Sri lankan and himself.
However I was horrified by Rupert Lowe's choice of candidate.,"Devoted to Send" (mentally retarded ).This is bankrupting every council and something should be done about it .There used to be an expression "Life unworthy of life"however as Jacob Rees Mogg told me ,Mongols have the vote .
So simply on gut instinct I would vote for Mr Kenyon .The best thing NF can do for his campaign is to stay away ,along with the likes of Yusuf,Zahawi,Jenrick et alia.
What a thoroughly nasty remark, ' life unworthy of life'
One hopes you never need support, if god forbid you ever had an accident, or ended up in a wheelchair.
Do you think that Stephen hawking had no support? Or that he should be ' warehoused' in a care home, to save the state money? Less of a burden, one presumes.
It is the state bureaucratic system, that is costing the money, parents have been saying that for years. They never listen!
And no I'm not a lefty, was involved with policy for years, to get some semblance of sensible from the local authority.
You are right on one thing, ridiculous wastes, alot down to health and safety. Costs double! £26 hr for an agency carer#@!
I am not talking about people who have had accidents ,or contract diseases etc (As for Stephen Hawking ,I'm always told he was brilliant but so what ,I preferred the Black Hole by Disney).
I live in an area with a high proportion of mentally defectives due to Inbreeding.Mongols,autistic,”Learning” difficulties (the problem is they can't learn).I regularly see these mentally defectives with their African http://carers.It is bankrupting this country and all the councils everywhere .They are simply using up resources that could be put to better http://use.So yes life unworthy of life.A good Euthanasia plan would be excellent .With the advanced in medical science I don't see these people need to exist at all,since it is able to be detected prior to Birth .If the parents wish to keep them ,then so be it ,if not the state will get rid of them .Have a nice weekend.
I have a politician friend in The Netherlands who I meet up with regularly and she told me that their PR election process means that no party gets ground for a majority and that’s why we see not long after an election in a European country, the coalition formed (they don’t have a choice but form coalitions to form a government) collapses and another election is called. This means that the nations of Europe are not being governed and why I think the EU has so much control there. She said our FPTP election system is the envy of the countries in Europe. I agree with her. She also stated that her country as well as other European countries would love to leave the EU like Britain did but they can’t because they are locked into the Euro. In her words they are stuck.
This is a great article Gawain and mirrors my thoughts. If anyone is paying attention then they will realise Britain is in a perilous position currently and these by election votes are very important, especially leading into a General a election which I believe is not far off, and likely before the end of 2026. Splitting the votes is strategic and a way to continue Britains demise. The Tories are desperate to return to government and Tories and Labour want to keep their Uniparty going and feel a definite threat by ReformUK. Dougie smith runs the Tory party, he’s paid a salary but no one sees or ever hears of him. He chooses who leads that party and what happens to leaders who don’t work his agenda. He’s not a good person, in fact if you have read “Downfall” you would say he’s dangerous. He’s mentored Kemi to become leader for a long time and writes the speeches they read out. If he’s been meeting Rupert Lowe then restore is a strategy of the conservatives and he’s being primed for a position in that party. Let’s not be fooled here!
Gawain, Farage is known for two things above all, Brexit and immigration control.
He *was* also known for pushing big for PR.
When did that change?
For another reason to him achieving poll leads for well over a year, and topping 30%?
When did he finally see the light to be pro FPTP?
He never pushed big for PR - he was very agnostic about it, but sort of 52-48 in favour of the AV referendum. Tice was big on PR, Anne W very against.
Is that really accurate?
Farage regularly railed against the unfairness of FPTP for smaller parties not getting representation...the LDs *as well as* UKIP, Bxt Pty and Reform in the early days.
Didn't he complain a lot that Reform's 4m votes in 2024 left the party with just 4 MPs?
That hardly sounds like him being pro-FPTP and lukewarm on PR.
It was clearly unfair, but I never felt this heart was in it, as he also understood the representation argument. He didn’t stop others going on about it though that is true. It was always a live by the sword die by the sword sort of thing. That being said I don’t think he realised that would be weaponised against him.
I wonder if those who say they will vote Restore would vote for Reform, absent Restore? Maybe Restore won’t “split” the vote significantly.
As for Andy Burnham’s policies. This is Attlee Mk II - turning UK into a quasi-Communist State. Nationalising the economy is what destroyed it, and we are now in the final phase of that ruination. The Attlee Government used Government debt to fund nationalisation, unless Burnham is just going to expropriate businesses like a Communist dictator, he will have to borrow a lot of money. He dismisses the importance of the Bond markets, but I doubt, not just given the enormous current debt of £2.9 trillion, they will lend to fund his plans. Then where will he get the working capital for nationalised businesses? Taxation, burrowing, money printing.
1960s/70s. Inflation above 20%, wage settlements around 14%, mortgage rates 16%, Income tax bottom rate 35%, rising in 5% increments in narrow tax bands to top 83% plus 15% supertax for unearned income, corporation tax 46%.
‘Nationalising the economy is what destroyed it’
Growth rates were much higher from 1945 to the 70s, when there was a higher degree of public control and high taxes on the rich, than there was thereafter.
The stakes are not high in this by election at all, it really doesn’t matter which elitist commie leads Labour, Andy Burnham is an absolute tool and if Labour lurches further left then they will fail faster and be more beatable not less. Farage is a weasel, his straight up lies about Tommy Robinson mean he is dead to me, he didn’t just repeat the old ones which is sort of forgivable but made up whole new ones of his own. The lies the leadership told about Lowe were gross as well (you fail to address them) so he starts with my sympathy. Letting the scumbags from the Tory’s into leadership positions in reform is another massive turn off and how does it not make reform another Uniparty? It certainly is at the top. I respect the new councillors and decent normal Brits that have joined up to reform but they are being led by proven liars like all the rest. All the Unipartys have promised to get control of migration and that in itself is completely meaningless, we want it stopped and reversed. There is still no one I would trust to vote for but Lowe is the only one who has named two of the very real enemies we face, Fabian communism and Islam, not Islamism that’s a political fiction. At the very least it’s great to have Restore there forcing weasel Farage and his donkeys in the right direction.
Of course Restore is not fielding a candidate in Aberdeen. Gawain should know how long it took Reform to establish a presence in Scotland. Restore has no presence, no organisation and no ability to campaign in Scotland. Lowe has said he plans to put up candidates in the Scottish local elections next April.
It wasn't simply unwise and unnecessary to report Lowe to the police. It was incredibly stupid and Farage is now reaping the whirlwind.
FWIW, I doubt Restore, or the Tories, LibDems and Greens, will get more than a handful of votes anyway.
People are always accusing me of having Rupert Lowe as an “Idol”where they get this notion from I don't know.There is also an expression “Idols with clay feet”.Lowe’s son has married a Muslim woman,the celebration having Halal meat.His campaign manager in Makerfield is a certain Scott Benton,whose shady past would be interesting to Reform I would imagine.People can do their own research.I am glad I stated I would be voting for Mr Kenyon if I lived there ,I'm pretty shocked by this actually.Thank God my idols are gone and they'll always live in my heart ,to live and have to witness the decline of this once great nation is the worst thing anyone should have to endure .As the Dowager Lady Birdwood said in a Telegraph interview “The Jews and Muslims will be fighting for possession of land”.How right she was,in more ways than one .RIP dear soul.