Bump! Down to earth. Much needed reality check, and optimism all wrapped up in one eloquently crafted package of wordsmithery. Very smooth and as slick as the oil on the front page.
You obviously have Nigel Farage in mind when you say “Slick as oil”,or perhaps Nadhim Zahawi.Let’s not forget Robert Jenrick who tried to save “Dirty Des “millions in taxes.Kind regards and good wishes for the Bank Holiday.(I’d be doing a ‘lost honour of Katherina Blum ,’if I translated that as oily.!.Oddly enough that book by Boll was written as a rebuke to Axel Springer,whose group has now purchased the Telegraph,after Zahawi's unsuccessful attempts on behalf of the http://UAE.In fact NF changed his stance on the UAE after Zahawi's joining of Reform.What a coincidence).
Pretty much with you on the raw numbers. Less than 1000 would give some pause, 1200 would be a very solid gain, anything approaching 1500 would be jam on top. Beyond that is a massive triumph but I think around 1200 is a more reasonable expectation. But maybe that's natural pessimism talking, a decade and a half in the UKIP trenches will do that to you...
One of the biggest variations I'm seeing is the expectations for 'Others'. You cited Pollcheck who I've also been looking at, for example. Firstly, it's not transparent if that includes 'prompting for Restore' amongst that figure. If so, then it is reasonable to add most of that element back onto Reform for the purposes of these elections, which gives a surprisingly large jump if you plug even that 2-3% back in to their numbers and give it to us. Their modelling also suggests that Independents will actually lose quite a high number of seats, and one thing supporting that thesis is that its been apparent that Reform have actually been performing extremely well in Council by-elections where there was a strong previous Independent vote, even where the same localist parties have stood once again - in fact, they have been devouring the Independent/Localist lunch just as thoroughly as they have the Tories or Labour's, so to speak.
That said, the MRP has Independents winning a not insubstantial amount rather than Pollcheck's equally substantial predicted losses. Pollcheck's model is, as you say, extremely granular, but when it comes to predicting the Gaza Independents it may just not be able to dig deeply enough to get that right and if there are large gains to be had that must surely be where they are coming from. It will be very interesting to look at urban wards where you have Gaza/Green head to heads, of which there must be a fair few - will they swing into line behind one or the other as Gorgeous George (and the self-appointed but unfortunately very effective 'The Muslim Vote') instructed their acolytes to do before Gorton & Denton? Or split down the middle?
All to play for. Thanks, as always, for all your efforts on the ground and elsewhere.
The only poll that counts is in polling day.I think it was Margaret Thatcher who said that .As for Kellner ,I believe he's married to Cathy Ashton the former EU apparatchik,So I've never taken any notice of him or pollsters in general.I suppose it's interesting for the likes of Zahawi,does everyone know he came here with nothing,he keeps it very quiet .
It's very difficult to compare apples and pears at the best of times without Rupert adding onions to the mix. Any statistical modeling that doesn't account for the new party is totally flawed.
That's a fair point .Clearly Reform people are rattled http://though.Im sure Rees Mogg thought he could slate him in the recent interview .Far from it ,Rupert Lowe stood his ground exceedingly well ,to quote Mr http://Kipling.So much so it had to be strongly edited ,the edited bits can be seen on Connor Tomlinson's Substack.
Very good article, thanks Gawain.
From my own perspective, canvassing and leafleting for Reform over the past 3 to 4 years, support on the doorstep has grown exponentially.
I admit that’s a tiny snapshot, but it’s relevant, particularly since we’ll find out next week.
The other exponential increase is in expressed loathing for both Labour and the fake Tories.
Finally, (I’m out again today knocking on doors), I have only come across a single solitary:
‘I used to support Reform, but now I’m with Restore’.
It’s remarkable, though, how many people mention Lowe being under investigation for inappropriate behaviour to his own staff!
Roll on next Friday.
Bump! Down to earth. Much needed reality check, and optimism all wrapped up in one eloquently crafted package of wordsmithery. Very smooth and as slick as the oil on the front page.
You obviously have Nigel Farage in mind when you say “Slick as oil”,or perhaps Nadhim Zahawi.Let’s not forget Robert Jenrick who tried to save “Dirty Des “millions in taxes.Kind regards and good wishes for the Bank Holiday.(I’d be doing a ‘lost honour of Katherina Blum ,’if I translated that as oily.!.Oddly enough that book by Boll was written as a rebuke to Axel Springer,whose group has now purchased the Telegraph,after Zahawi's unsuccessful attempts on behalf of the http://UAE.In fact NF changed his stance on the UAE after Zahawi's joining of Reform.What a coincidence).
Pretty much with you on the raw numbers. Less than 1000 would give some pause, 1200 would be a very solid gain, anything approaching 1500 would be jam on top. Beyond that is a massive triumph but I think around 1200 is a more reasonable expectation. But maybe that's natural pessimism talking, a decade and a half in the UKIP trenches will do that to you...
One of the biggest variations I'm seeing is the expectations for 'Others'. You cited Pollcheck who I've also been looking at, for example. Firstly, it's not transparent if that includes 'prompting for Restore' amongst that figure. If so, then it is reasonable to add most of that element back onto Reform for the purposes of these elections, which gives a surprisingly large jump if you plug even that 2-3% back in to their numbers and give it to us. Their modelling also suggests that Independents will actually lose quite a high number of seats, and one thing supporting that thesis is that its been apparent that Reform have actually been performing extremely well in Council by-elections where there was a strong previous Independent vote, even where the same localist parties have stood once again - in fact, they have been devouring the Independent/Localist lunch just as thoroughly as they have the Tories or Labour's, so to speak.
That said, the MRP has Independents winning a not insubstantial amount rather than Pollcheck's equally substantial predicted losses. Pollcheck's model is, as you say, extremely granular, but when it comes to predicting the Gaza Independents it may just not be able to dig deeply enough to get that right and if there are large gains to be had that must surely be where they are coming from. It will be very interesting to look at urban wards where you have Gaza/Green head to heads, of which there must be a fair few - will they swing into line behind one or the other as Gorgeous George (and the self-appointed but unfortunately very effective 'The Muslim Vote') instructed their acolytes to do before Gorton & Denton? Or split down the middle?
All to play for. Thanks, as always, for all your efforts on the ground and elsewhere.
There are too many polls tbf, so trying to make sense of their variability is a science in itself - or if not a science, rune reading.
The only poll that counts is in polling day.I think it was Margaret Thatcher who said that .As for Kellner ,I believe he's married to Cathy Ashton the former EU apparatchik,So I've never taken any notice of him or pollsters in general.I suppose it's interesting for the likes of Zahawi,does everyone know he came here with nothing,he keeps it very quiet .
It's very difficult to compare apples and pears at the best of times without Rupert adding onions to the mix. Any statistical modeling that doesn't account for the new party is totally flawed.
Right now his support is irrelevant as they are not standing in the elections, they become relevant if and when they do.
That's a fair point .Clearly Reform people are rattled http://though.Im sure Rees Mogg thought he could slate him in the recent interview .Far from it ,Rupert Lowe stood his ground exceedingly well ,to quote Mr http://Kipling.So much so it had to be strongly edited ,the edited bits can be seen on Connor Tomlinson's Substack.
Neither rattled, shaken or stirred.
He gave better than he got.
Regardless of whether people like Nigel or not, they still agree that he does actually answer questions and is very direct.
Compare that to Starmer at PMQ’s
🤦🏻♀️
I'm sure 007 ..I do believe Reform will be in for a good night,I'm not a COMPLETE http://idiot.Best of luck and best wishes .