Navigating the Minefield of Power

An edited version of a speech given to the Centre for Policy Studies Thatcher Fellowship at Jesus College, Cambridge 12/7/25

If you've been following British politics lately, (and the fact you are here suggests that you have) you'll know that Reform UK isn't just a blip on the radar anymore, not a souffle set to collapse, it's a seismic shift. As someone who's been in the trenches with this movement for over two decades, from UKIP's early days to the Brexit Party's battering ram tactics and now Reform's surge, I've seen it all. The polls have us at 30%, membership closing in on 230,000, and projections whispering of landslides. But let's cut the triumphalism. Today, I want to talk about the real story: the threats lurking if Reform actually forms a government. Success isn't guaranteed; failure could unravel not just us, but the fabric of British democracy.

I've titled this post in the spirit of deep reflection, probing not just the surface wins but the profound risks ahead. This isn't alarmism; it's a call to arms for thoughtful engagement. If we're serious about change, we must anticipate the pitfalls.

From Fringes to Frontline: A Quick Recap

To grasp the threats, context matters. Our "tribe" started with UKIP in 1993, laser-focused on ditching the EU. We topped the 2014 European polls at 26.6%, but Westminster's first-past-the-post system kept us out. Post-referendum, UKIP splintered, giving way to the Brexit Party in 2019. As its first employee and Comms director, I watched us hit 30.5% in the Euros, then self-sacrifice by standing down to ensure Boris Johnson's win. We are the only party that hasn’t just repeated the mantra “Country before Party” we are the only ones to have actually carried it out, despite the pain

Rebranded as Reform under Richard Tice in 2020, we simmered at 8-10% until Nigel Farage's 2024 return ignited the rocket. We grabbed 4.1 million votes (14.3%) and five seats in Brexit heartlands. The 2025 locals were a breakthrough: 677 seats, control of 10 councils, and by-elections adding MPs. Now, we're eyeing 2026's devolved elections, leading polls in Wales, projecting 17 seats in Scotland, and poised to challenge Labour's grip.

This ascent is exhilarating, but it's exposed cracks. We're light on big names beyond Farage and Lee Anderson, and policy depth needs work. We're addressing that by engaging with think tanks like the Prosperity Institute, the CPS and businesses (even discreetly, for those wary of backlash). Our pillars, family, community, country, resonate with the "somewheres," but governing demands more than instinct.

The Institutional Fortress: Barriers to Delivery

A Reform government wouldn't just face opposition parties; it'd collide with Britain's entrenched structures, built to resist radicals like us. These aren't abstract; they're concrete threats to implementing our agenda on immigration, taxes, welfare, and deregulation.

Start with the House of Lords. This unelected relic, stuffed with appointees, is a Reform-free zone. It could veto bills on border control or economic reform, sparking a constitutional showdown. Our manifesto might call for slashing its size or abolition, echoing past fights like the 1911 Parliament Act. But peers, with lifetimes of privilege, won't yield easily. They'd frame resistance as defending democracy, delaying us for years while public frustration builds.

The judiciary is equally formidable. Post-Blair, courts have ballooned judicial review, often clashing with parliamentary sovereignty. Influenced by the ECHR, they've blocked deportations and migration policies. We'd aim to curb this, by exiting the ECHR, reforming or repealing the Human Rights Act and limiting the Supreme Court's reach, but judges are insulated, interpreting laws through a human rights lens backed by sloppy legislation but detached from voter will. Legal challenges could tie us in knots, portraying Reform as authoritarian while real issues fester.

Then there's the quangocracy: a sprawling network of bodies spending £353 billion annually (pre-Labour's expansions), with chiefs out-earning the PM. From the BBC to NHS England, these quasi-autonomous entities advance agendas with scant accountability. They'd lobby ferociously against cuts, leaking to the media and unions to paint us as heartless. Dismantling this "blob" requires political will, but entrenched interests could sabotage from within, turning reform into a quagmire.

Whitehall's civil service is the silent killer. Mandarins prioritise stability over change, slow-walking policies they dislike. We've seen it under Tories: bold ideas on migration or bureaucracy evaporate in red tape. A Reform PM would need loyalists in key posts, but the service's neutrality is a romantic dream, no longer the reality on the ground. Leaks, resignations, and passive aggression could derail delivery, leaving pledges unfulfilled.

Big business poses a subtler threat. Globalists in the CBI and FTSE favor open borders for cheap labor and EU alignment for ease. Our pro-competition, anti-corporatist stance might prompt threats of relocation or investment strikes. They'd whisper about "economic chaos," eroding confidence. Balancing this, courting investment while smashing cronyism, demands finesse we must build now.

Electoral Wildcards and Regional Traps

Politics isn't static; threats evolve. Labour, reeling at 22% polls, might push proportional representation (PR) to splinter the right and enable coalitions. The irony? PR would supercharge us, from five seats on 14.3% to 90, or 180+ at 30%. But it risks diluting majorities, forcing alliances with a rump centrist Conservative Party that compromise on net zero or immigration. We'd become fixtures, but being able to effect the real change we need would suffer.

Devolved arenas add layers. Wales' PR system offers Senedd gains, but nationalists could coalition-block unionist policies. In Scotland, our projected 17 seats clash with SNP independence dreams; missteps could alienate the Central Belt. London's outer boroughs, battered by crime and costs, are ripe, but inner-city demographics resist our messaging on community and borders.

These aren't hypotheticals, they're flashpoints where gains could turn pyrrhic if mishandled.

The Ultimate Peril: Failing to Deliver and the Death of Trust

Here's the deepest threat: winning power but botching it. Fourteen years of Tory failures, sky-high migration despite promises, housing crises, NHS queues, plus Labour's detachment have nuked public trust. Into this morass steps Reform, vowing integrity.

But failure could finish democracy. Churchill quipped it's the worst system except the alternatives, but when it stops delivering, alternatives beckon. Alarmingly, 30% of under-25s now eye authoritarianism to smash gridlock. History warns: French Revolution, interwar fascism, Soviet fall, all followed systemic distrust.

If Reform's government gets mired in institutional wars, unable to cut taxes, secure borders, or smash welfare traps, cynicism explodes. Voters won't just switch parties; they'll reject the system. Extremes rise, far-left populism, or worse. Farage gets this; our outreach to think tanks and businesses isn't fluff, it's arming for battle.

We need radical blueprints: abolish Lords, rein in courts, gut quangos, reform civil service. Make work pay, end welfare dependency. But delivery demands partners of goodwill beyond our base.

A Call to the Thoughtful

Reform's rise is unprecedented, but so are the stakes. We're not a relic; we're a movement for rooted Britons in a demographic storm. To succeed, we must confront these threats with eyes wide open.

If you're in business, a think tank, or just a concerned citizen, engage, discreetly if needed. Together, we can rebuild a prosperous, fair Britain. The establishment fears us for good reason. Let's prove them right to worry.

What do you think? Drop comments below, and if this resonates, subscribe for more unfiltered takes on politics' underbelly.

Until next time,

Gawain Towler